The purpose of the trend analysis is to provide key information on the DIRECTION, STRENGTH and TIMING OF CHANGE in the price trend in the short, medium and long term using one of the most reliable trading tools: Moving Averages.

Below are the Key Moving Averages used to determine the direction and strength of the trend for each of the time periods considered:

• Short-Term Trend:
  20-day Moving Average
• Mid-Term Trend:
  50-day Moving Average
• Long-Term Trend:
  200-day Moving Average
• All-Term Trend:
  20-day, 50-day and 200-day Moving Average

The following table summarizes the number of companies which, at the end of the last trading session, entered a new positive or negative trend in each of the 4 time periods considered:

This analysis is updated every day and covers the Top 20 Global Stock Indices and Top 115 ETFs.

Top 20 Global Indices

The Top 20 global indices covered by this analysis are divided into 5 categories based on the geographical area:

• United States: (9 Indices)
  
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  The 9 most important US stock indexes are considered. From the 4 most famous indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial and Russell 2000) to the lesser known ones such as the Russell 1000, S&P 100 and Wilshere 5000, ending with the historic Nasdaq Composite and NYSE Composite.
• Europe: (8 Indices)
  
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  The 8 equity indices are considered, including the 2 that represent the best companies of each European country (EuroStoxx 50 and EuroStoxx 600) and the indices of the individual countries; CAC 40 (France), DAX 30 (Germany), TecDAX (Germany), FTSE 100 (United Kingdom), FTSE 250 (United Kingdom) and FTSE MIB (Italy).
• China, India and Japan: (3 Indices)
  
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  It includes the Hang Seng Index representing the 50 largest Chinese companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the Nifty 50 Index representing the 50 largest Indian companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), and the Nikkei 225 Index representing the 225 largest Japanese companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE).

Top 115 ETFs

The 115 ETFs were selected by BullDude.com from a total of more than 3000 with the aim of choosing one for each of the 115 most interesting topics. For example, there are several ETFs on US large-cap companies but we have chosen the best in our opinion, namely SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF).

The 115 ETFs included in this analysis are divided into the following 10 categories:

• Total Market (15 ETFs) and Market Capitalization (14 ETFs)
  
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  The “Total Market” category includes ETFs that represent all companies listed on world stock exchanges such as VT (Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF), or that represent individual continents such as VGK (Vanguard European Stock Index Fund ETF) or individual countries such as EWU (iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF). Furthermore, ETFs are divided into “Growth” and “Value” companies.
  
  The ETFs included in the “Market Capitalization” category are categorized according to the market capitalization of the companies included. There are ETFs that refer only to Large Caps such as the IOO (iShares Global 100 ETF) which includes the 100 largest companies in the world or the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) which represents the 500 largest American companies or the FXI (iShares China Large-Cap ETF) which represents the largest Chinese companies. In addition, there are ETFs that represent Mid-Cap and Small-Cap stocks.
• Sectors and Industries (28 ETFs) and Thematic (22 ETFs)
  
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  The “Sectors and Industries” category includes 11 ETFs each representing a different sector of the S&P 500 index such as XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund) and 17 ETFs representing individual industries such as KRE (SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF) or SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETFs).
  
  The ETFs included in the “Thematic” category represent specific themes such as the BLOK (Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF) which invests in companies active in the Blockchain, the ESPO (VanEck Video Gaming and eSports ETF) or the CQQQ (Invesco China Technology ETF) which invests only in Chinese technology companies.
• Dividends (5 ETFs), Strategies (7 ETFs) and ARK Invest (7 ETFs)
  
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  The “Dividends” category includes ETFs that invest in high yielding dividend companies such as the SDIV (Global X SuperDividend ETF) or the NOBL (S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF) which invest in “Dividend Aristocrats” i.e. companies that have increased their dividend each year for at least 25 consecutive years.
  
  The “Strategies” category includes ETFs that invest in particular strategies such as the MOAT (VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF) which invests in companies that have a competitive advantages or the PKW (Invesco Buyback Achievers ETF) which invests in companies that are more likely to buy back shares or the IPO (Renaissance International IPO ETF) which invests in companies that have recently gone public.
  
  The “ARK Invest” category includes ETFs from ARK Invest, the investment company led by Cathie Wood and which has become famous especially since 2020 for its stellar performance. This category includes all their ETFs including the most famous ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) which invests in companies investing in “disruptive innovation”, i.e. “the introduction of a technologically enabled new product or service that potentially changes the way the world works”. In general, all ARK ETFs invest in innovation and new technologies.
• Inverse and Leveraged (7 ETFs)
  
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  The “Inverse and Leveraged” category includes 4 ETFs targeting the downside of the main US stock indices such as the SH (ProShares Short S&P500 ETF) which targets the downside of the S&P 500 index. It also includes 3 ETFs targeting the upside of the main stock indexes but using leverage 3x as the famous TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ) which aims to replicate the daily performance of the Nasdaq 100 multiplied by 3 times.
• Bitcoin (2 ETFs) and Commodities (8 ETFs)
  
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  The “Bitcoin” category includes 2 Bitcoin ETFs; BITO (ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF) bets on the upside of Bitcoin while BITI (BetaPro Inverse Bitcoin ETF) bets on the downside.
  
  The “Commodities” category includes 8 ETFs that aim to replicate the performance of the main commodities such as the GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) which aims at the rise in the price of gold, USO (United States Oil ETF) and UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund).

Below is the complete list of the Top 20 Global Indices and Top 115 ETFs.

The table shows the Ticker (real ETF ticker), Name (name given by BullDude.com useful for understanding what and where the ETF invests in) and Full Name (real full name of the ETF). The Name column indicates the geographical area where the ETF invests, such as WLD (companies listed on stock exchanges in all countries), US (United States), CH (China), IN (India), EM (Emerging Markets) or DM (Developed Markets).

The added value of this analysis is knowing which Stock Indices and ETFs have the strongest positive and negative trend in the short, medium and long term but it is also very important to know every day which Stock Indices and ETFs have entered a new positive or negative trend.

Summaries and Rankings

This article includes a lot of key data and information on each of the top 20 global indices and top 115 ETFs covered. Given the enormous amount of data and information, the following 2 sections have been introduced that allow you to access the data through summaries and rankings.

1. Trend Rankings

This first section shows which indices/ETFs have just changed the direction of the trend and intuitive rankings that allow you to find out which indices/ETFs have the strongest positive / negative trend for each of the 3 time periods considered (short, medium and long term).

Furthermore, a ranking is also shown for the so-called “All-Term” period, where only the indices/ETFs that have a positive (or negative) trend in both the short, medium and long term are included.

In summary, this section answers the following questions:

• Which are the indices/ETFs with the Strongest Positive Trend?
• Which are the indices/ETFs with the Strongest Negative Trend?
• Which indices/ETFs have seen a Change in the Direction of the Trend?

2. Trend of the Top 20 Global Indices and Top 115 ETFs

This second section shows, for each of the 20 indices and 115 ETFs, the direction and strength of the trend for each time period; short, medium and long term. The purpose of this section is to answer the following questions:

• What is the direction and strength of the short, medium and long term trend of a stock index like S&P 500 or ETF like NOBL (S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF)?
• How much does the index/ETF price have to rise to reach its 52-week high?

It is possible to sort each of the 3 columns containing the data on the strength of the trend in order, for example, to display those with the strongest positive/negative trend first.

Within the Trend Analysis category available on BullDude.com you will find the Top 20 Global Stock Indices and Top 115 ETFs but also the Top 150 Wall Street Stocks and Top 50 Crypto, from Apple and Tesla to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Table of Contents

This article is divided into the following sections:

Key Terms

Trend Rankings | Short-Term Trend
Trend Rankings | Mid-Term Trend
Trend Rankings | Long-Term Trend
Trend Rankings | All-Term Trend

Trend of the Top 20 Global Indices and Top 115 ETFs

Key Terms

Below you can find a brief explanation of the 2 key terms to help you understand how the direction and strength of the index/ETF price trend is calculated using one of the most reliable tools: Moving Average.

How is the DIRECTION of the Index/ETF Price Trend determined?

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The direction of the Index/ETF price trend is determined by comparing the average price of the last 2 days (2-Day Moving Average) with the average price of the following periods:

• Short-Term Trend:
  20-Day Moving Average
• Mid-Term Trend:
  50-Day Moving Average
• Long-Term Trend:
  200-Day Moving Average

The index/ETF price is in a positive trend if the 2-Day MA (Moving Average) is higher than the average price of the 3 periods seen previously, while if it is lower it means that the price is in a negative trend. So, in summary:

Positive Trend:
2-Day MA HIGHER than 20/50/200-Day MA

Negative Trend:
2-Day MA LOWER than 20/50/200-Day MA

The explanations below are made using the Apple Inc (AAPL) stock as an example but the same logic applies to the Indices/ETFs price.

Real Example: Apple Inc (AAPL)

Here is a real example of how Apple’s Short-Term Trend is determined and shows when it goes from negative to positive.

The example shows only the case of the short-term trend (therefore using the 20-Day MA) because the concept is the same in the case of medium and long-term trends, the only thing that changes is the use of the 50-Day MA and 200-Day MA respectively:

Case 1 – Negative Trend:
In this time period Apple’s short-term trend is negative because the 2-Day MA (red line) is LOWER than the 20-Day MA (black line). So, in these cases, in the article, a red-colored percentage will appear in the table, indicating the presence of a negative trend. Whether the number is high or low will depend on the strength of the trend, but we will learn more about it in the dedicated section.

Case 2 – Positive Trend:
In the middle of the image there is a vertical dashed red line indicating the moment when the short-term trend changes from negative to positive. This is because the 2-Day MA (red line) for the first time becomes HIGHER than the 20-Day MA (black line). In this case, a green-colored percentage will appear in the table.

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How is the STRENGTH of the Index/ETF Price Trend determined?

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In the previous section we discovered how to determine the direction of the trend based on the position of the 2-Day MA relative to the moving averages that represent the trend in the short term (20-Day MA), medium term (50-Day MA) and long term (200-Day MA). If the 2-Day MA is higher then the trend is positive, while if it is lower the trend is negative.

Consequently, the strength of the trend is determined on how far the 2-Day MA diverges from the other 3 Moving Averages. The more the price of the last 2 days accelerates compared to that of the last 20/50 or 200 days, the greater the strength of the trend.

Real Example: Apple Inc (AAPL)

Taking the example of the previous section on Apple’s short-term trend, and focusing only on the positive trend for simplicity, we distinguish 2 different cases: Weak Trend and Strong Trend.

Case 1 – Weak Trend:
In this case we are talking about a weak positive trend because the 2-Day MA is only 1.5% higher than the 20-Day SMA, especially because the short-term positive trend has just begun.

Case 2 – Strong Trend:
After several trading sessions, Apple’s 2-Day MA accelerates and in fact we are talking about a strong positive trend because this time the 2-Day MA is 4.5% higher than the 20-Day MA, so the trend is 3 times stronger compared to the previous case (4.5% vs 1.5%).

In conclusion, within the article we find the strength of the trend (that 1.5% and 4.5% previously seen) for each of the top 20 global indices and top 115 ETFs and for each of the 3 time periods (Short, Mid and Long Term).

Below is an example of how this data is shown in the article for each of the indices and ETFs and for each period of time considered: Short, Mid and Long term. Furthermore, as an additional data, the price growth margin is shown to be able to return to the maximum price recorded in the last 52 weeks (“52-Week High”) starting from the average price of the last 2 days. The data in the table are examples and not real.

In addition to showing the strength and direction of the trend data for each of the top indices/ETFs covered by the article, rankings are also shown in order to intuitively identify the indices/ETFs with the strongest positive and negative trend.

In the image below an example of the indices/ETFs with the strongest positive and negative long-term trend, with an indication of how strong the trend is (therefore the percentage distance between the 2-Day Moving Average and the 200-Day Moving Average). The data in the table are examples and not real.

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How to determine when the Index/ETF Price Trend CHANGES DIRECTION?

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In the section on determining the direction of the trend we found that it is based on the position of the 2-Day MA with respect to the moving averages that represent the trend in the short term (20-Day MA), medium term (50-Day MA) and long term term (200-Day MA). If the 2-Day MA is higher then the trend is positive, while if it is lower the trend is negative.

Therefore, to understand when the trend changes from being negative to positive, it is necessary to wait for the 2-Day MA to change from being lower to higher than the 20/50/200-Day MA and vice versa in the event of a trend passing from positive to negative.

In this article, in the case of a transition from a negative to a positive trend, this change is identified with the percentage of strength of the trend that is next to the name of the Index/ETF that changes from being red in the previous day (because it was a negative trend) to be green in the next day (because the trend becomes positive). In any case, there is a section where the indices/ETFs that show a change in trend from negative to positive and vice versa are shown, for each period of time.

Example: from Heaven to Hell

In the following example we show what happens when a completely positive trend, i.e. positive in the short, medium and long term, becomes completely negative and how this situation is represented in this type of article.

*”Hell” is not the real continuation of “Heaven”, but they have been taken in different periods because they are useful to represent the concept

Heaven = Completely Positive Trend
In this case, Apple’s stock price is in a completely positive trend, i.e. the 2-Day MA is above the 20-Day, 50-Day and 200-Day MA. Below is the example chart:

In this type of article a situation like this is represented with green numbers in the short, medium and long term trend boxes:

Hell = Completely Negative Trend

The passage from heaven to hell consists in the passage from a completely positive trend (case 1) to a completely negative one, passing through the various steps, i.e. that first the short-term trend becomes negative (case 2), then the medium-term one (case 3) and finally the long-term one (case 4). Below is Apple’s sample chart that fully represents this situation.

Case 1: FULL Positive Trend
The first case takes up the previous section called “Heaven” where the trend is positive in all time periods because the 2-Day MA is higher than the 20-Day MA, 50-Day MA and 200-Day MA.

Case 2: New Short-Term Negative Trend
The second case represents the moment in which, starting from a completely positive trend situation, the Apple stock price starts to drop and the 2-Day MA ends below the 20-Day MA and therefore the short-term trend becomes negative, while the mid-term and long-term ones remain positive, even if their strength is lower.

Case 3: New Mid-Term Negative Trend
The third case represents the moment in which Apple’s stock price continues to drop and the 2-Day MA also falls below the 50-Day MA and therefore also the medium-term trend becomes negative along with the short-term one, while the trend in the long term it can still be defined as positive, even if it has lost a lot of strength, a situation that can be easily identified in the tables shown.

Case 4: New Long-Term Negative Trend
The fourth case represents the moment in which we reach hell, therefore from a completely positive trend we pass to a completely negative one. In fact, Apple’s stock price continues to drop further and the 2-Day MA also falls below the 200-Day MA and thus the long-term trend turns negative, along with the short and medium one.

In the following image a representation of what would happen to the tables found in this article during the period in which the various cases occur. The numbers inside the table are invented and are for educational purposes only:

Therefore, this article is very useful for identifying both very positive situations, but also very negative ones and above all the daily update frequency allows you to check every day if the trend loses strength and if it goes in the opposite direction.

Discover the full explanation

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1. Trend Rankings

This section shows summaries and rankings that allow you to understand which indices/ETFs have reversed the trend and which show the strongest positive and negative trends.

Below you will find the 4 individual sections that contain the summaries and rankings for each of the 4 time periods previously mentioned; Short-Term, Mid-Term, Long-Term and All-Term Trend.

1.1 Short-Term Trend

In this section we focus on indices/ETFs by looking at short-term trend data only which is identified using the 20-day moving average:

• Positive (Negative) short-term trend:
  2-day moving average Higher (Lower) than 20-day moving average
• New Positive (Negative) short-term trend:
  2-day moving average Crossed above (below) the 20-day moving average

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Summary

This subsection shows the total number of indices/ETFs covered by the analysis (Total), the number of indices/ETFs that currently have a positive / negative trend (Positive / Negative) and the indices/ETFs that have seen, at the end of today’s trading session, a reversal of the short-term trend from negative to positive (New Positive Trend) and from positive to negative (New Negative Trend).

New Positive Trend

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New Negative Trend

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Rankings

This subsection shows the 20 indices/ETFs with the strongest positive short-term trend (TOP) and the 20 indices/ETFs with the strongest negative short-term trend (FLOP). For each indices/ETFs included in the ranking there is a percentage value that indicates the direction of the trend (positive trend if colored green or negative if colored red) and an indication of the strength of the trend (the higher the percentage, the stronger the trend).

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TOP 20

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FLOP 20

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Mid, Long and All-Term Trend Sections

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2. Trend of the Top 20 Indices and Top 115 ETFs

In this second section we find the data on the direction and strength of the short, medium and long term trend for each of the Top 20 Global Indices and Top 115 ETFs that are covered by this analysis.

As additional information there is also the item “52-Week High”, useful for understanding how much the index/ETF price must increase to return to the maximum price reached in the last 52 weeks starting from the average price of the last 2 days.

For each index/ETF included there is a percentage value that indicates the direction of the trend (positive trend if colored green or negative if colored red) and an indication of the strength of the trend (the higher the percentage, the stronger the trend).

It is possible to sort each of the 3 columns containing the data on the strength of the trend in order, for example, to display those with the strongest positive/negative trend first.

Do you need a more detailed explanation? click here

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