Stock Of The Day | July 27

Stock of the Day allows you to access the key data you need to know about companies to get a complete overview of the different types of areas. From key business data and their relationship with the company’s value to information on stock price trends and risk parameters.

In today’s analysis we see a tech giant with over 70 billion in profits over the last 12 months that is at a better valuation than the last 8 years.

All the key data of the company are updated to the latest released earnings report and are represented through 19 tables and 35 graphs, divided into 4 sections: Key Business Data, Valuation and Correlations, Performance and Risk.

Here are the questions that each section answers:

1. Key Business Data

  • Is the company increasing the volume of business ?
  • Is the company producing an operating profit and is the operating margin improving?
  • Is the company able to produce a profit after all costs and an improving net margin?

2. Valuation and Correlations

  • What are the main valuation multiples of the company?
  • Does the company currently have a more attractive valuation than in recent years?
  • Is the trend in market value correlated with the trend in key business data?

3. Performance

  • Is the company in a positive or negative trend in the short, medium and long term?
  • How is the company performing in the short, medium and long term?

4. Risk

  • Is the company riskier than the market (S&P 500 index)?
  • Is the company’s performance correlated with the market trend?
  • What is the average and maximum loss recorded by the company?

A summary is shown below which aims to summarize the main company data, which can be explored by accessing the individual sections.


Summary

The goal of this summary is to provide a general overview of all of the company’s most important key data. The first part focuses on Key Business Data, the second part on Valuation and Correlations and the third part on Performance and Risk. The detail of each single area can be explored in the rest of the article.


Summary – Part 1

In this first part of the summary, attention is focused on the 5 key business data; Revenue, EBITDA, Net Income and the 2 main business margins (EBITDA margin and Net margin). For each key business data, the data in millions of dollars of the last fiscal year, the growth / decrease percentage of the last 3 years and the graph showing the annual trend are shown. As regards EBITDA and Net Income, the relative margin in % on revenue is also shown (red line).

All this information can be deepened within the article in the Key Business Data section.

Company:


Summary – Part 2

This second part of the summary shows some information on the other areas to understand if the company is at a better valuation than in the past and if the trend of the market value is correlated to the trend of the key business data.

brief explanation of the metrics

Valuation: For each valuation multiple considered, it is indicated the current value and the graph showing the past trend useful to understand if the company is currently at a better valuation (lower value than in the past). N/A is shown if the multiple cannot be calculated, i.e. if EBITDA or net profit is negative.

Correlations: For each key business data considered, it is indicated whether the trend is correlated to the trend of the market value with a value ranging from -1 to 1, where 1 indicates perfect correlation. The graphs show the company’s market value (left axis) and key business data (right axis). In the graphs, both values are in billions of dollars.

All this information can be deepened within the article in the Valuation and Correlations section.


Summary – Part 3

The third part of the summary aims to show if the price of the company is in a positive or negative trend, if the stock price has been increasing or decreasing during the last few months and some risk parameters.

brief explanation of the metrics

Performance: For each period of time considered it is indicated whether the company has a positive or negative performance. Trend Direction: For each period of time considered, it is indicated whether the stock price trend is positive or negative based on whether the current price is higher (or lower) than the average price of the last 20 (short-term), 50 (mid-term ) and 200 (long-term) days. In addition, the trend of the daily stock price and the daily percentage changes are shown in the 2 graphs.

Risk: The “Beta” indicates whether the company has a higher volatility than the market (S&P 500 index). “Maximum Loss” indicates the maximum daily, weekly and monthly loss. “Maximum Drawdown” means the maximum negative performance by the company over a specified period of time.

All this information can be deepened within the article in the Performance and Risk sections.


1. Key Business Data

This section focuses on the company’s key business data and aims to understand if the company’s business is growing, if the operating activity is able to produce positive flows, if net of all costs it is able to produce a net profit and whether business margins are improving.

The key business data that are taken into consideration are the following:

  • Revenue:
    Indicates the volume of business.
  • EBITDA and EBITDA margin:
    One of the most important metrics because it represents the result of the operating activity without taking into account other types of costs such as financial, fiscal and extraordinary.
  • Net Income and Net margin:
    Indicates the profit net of all costs.
learn more about metrics

Revenue:
Revenue are the sum of the products and services sold

EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization
EBITDA is one of the most important metrics because it allows us to understand the trend of the operating activity alone, thus excluding other types of costs such as financial, fiscal or extraordinary costs (which are considered in Net Income). EBITDA is calculated starting from the Revenue generated and subtracting the costs associated with the company’s operations (production, personnel, marketing costs, etc.).
*To calculate the EBITDA of the banks, the “interests” are included because they are an operational part of the business.

Net Income: measures the final profit of the company after subtracting all types of costs (operational, financial, fiscal and extraordinary) from revenue.

EBITDA margin and Net margin: Business margins are important to understand if the company is able to profit from its revenue (high business margin), or the costs are too high and little profit remains (low business margin). There is a case in which the costs exceed the revenue, in which case the company reports a loss and the business margin is negative. The EBITDA margin refers only to the operating activity, therefore it is more important than the Net margin because it is not influenced by other types of costs such as financial and fiscal ones. If margins improve, it means that the company is operating more efficiently, because with the same revenue it is able to make more operating profits (EBITDA) or net profits (Net Income).

So, this section answers the following questions:

  • Is the company increasing the volume of business (Revenue growing)?
  • Is the company producing an operating profit (positive EBITDA) and is the operating margin improving (growing EBITDA margin)?
  • Is the company able to produce a profit after all costs (positive Net Income) and an improving net margin (growing Net margin)?

In order to have a complete overview of the key business data in the short, medium and long term, below are 3 sections:

  • Last Quarter:
    overview of the short-term key business data released in the latest quarterly report.
  • Trailing 12-Months:
    overview of the medium / long-term key business data of the last 12 months compared with the same of previous years.
  • Fiscal Years:
    overview of the medium / long-term key business data of the last fiscal years.

1.1 Key Business Data
– Last Quarter –

In this sub-section you will find an in-depth analysis on the key business data (Revenue, EBITDA, Net Income and Business Margins) contained in the latest quarterly report released by the company and the comparison with the same period of previous years with the aim of understanding whether the company’s business volume has grown and business margins are improving.

In the “Summary” sub-section you will find a summary of the key business data compared with the same quarter of the previous year. In the “In-Depth” section you will find the comparison with the same quarter of the last few years and other details on the business margins and growth rates of each quarter.


Last Quarter – Summary

In the following image you will find a summary of the key business data released in the last quarterly report. The purpose of this sub-section is to show a summary of the data compared with the same quarter of the previous year, through intuitive charts and showing growth rates (“Y-o-Y Growth”).

*Data in Millions of USD

Last Quarter – In-Depth


1.2 Key Business Data
– Trailing 12-Months –

In this subsection we focus on trailing 12-months key business data, or as the sum of the last 12 months. This mode allows you to have more information than just the quarterly data because it includes the last 12 months and also with respect to the data of the individual fiscal years because it is possible to calculate it every quarter, while the data of the individual fiscal years can only be calculated at the end of the year.

In the “Summary” sub-section you will find a summary of the key business data of the last 12 months compared with the same 12 months of the previous year. In the “In-Depth” sub-section it is possible to deepen these metrics through graphs that show the 12-month trailing trend also of business margins and growth rates for each quarter.


Trailing 12-Months – Summary

In this sub-section you will find a summary of the trailing 12-months key business data, compared with the same 12 months of the previous year (“Growth vs previous 12-Months”). Furthermore, through the graphs it is possible to see how the trend of the trailing 12 months data at the end of each quarter of the last few years.

*Data in Millions of USD

Trailing 12-Months – In-Depth


1.3 Key Business Data
– Annual –

In this last sub-section, the key business data are divided for each fiscal year together with the growth / decrease rate of the last 3 years.

The “Summary” sub-section shows a summary of the key business data of the last fiscal year. The “In-Depth” subsection adds information on business margins and annual growth rates.


Annual – Summary

This subsection shows a summary of the key business data of the last fiscal year with the growth / decrease rate of the last 3 years (“3 Yrs Growth”).

*Data in Millions of USD

Annual – In-Depth


2. Valuation Multiples and Correlations

In this section you will find an analysis based on the company’s market value.

The purpose of this section is to understand, through valuation multiples, how much is valued by the market with respect to the key business data (for example it is worth 20 times the net income produced in 1 year) and to understand if there is a correlation between the trend of the market value and the trend of the key business data, or if the market value increases / decreases according to the increase / decrease of the key business data, or if there is no correlation.


2.1 Valuation Multiples

This section shows the 3 main valuation multiples that make it possible to relate the market value of the company with the 3 key business data (Revenue/Sales, EBITDA and Net income).

The 3 valuation multiples taken into consideration are the following:

  • Price to Sales (P/S): how much is the company worth compared to the revenue generated during the last 12 months.
  • Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV / EBITDA): how much the company is worth compared to the operating profit (EBITDA) generated during the last 12 months. In this case, the market value is not used but the Enterprise Value (EV), calculated by adding short and long-term debt to the market value and subtracting the cash. If the company has a negative EBITDA, the multiple cannot be calculated (N/A).
  • Price to Earnings (P/E): How much is the company worth compared to the net income produced during the last 12 months. If the company does not generate a profit but a loss, the P/E multiple cannot be calculated (N/A).

In addition to showing how much the company is currently worth compared to the key business data, the average value of the valuation multiple of the last 12 months (“1yr Avg.”) and the last 3 years (“3yr Avg.”) is also shown, with the aim of understanding whether the company currently has a more favorable valuation than in the past. The lower a valuation multiple is compared to the past, the more favorable its valuation.

Example

In general, the higher a multiple is, the more the market overvalues a given key business data. For example, if company A is worth $ 10 billion and company B is worth $ 100 billion and they are in the same industry and both produce $ 1 billion in revenue, company A will have a P/S (Price to Sales) multiple of 10x (10 billion worth divided by 1 billion in revenues), while Company B will have a P/S multiple of 100x (100 billion worth divided by 1 billion in revenues). In this case, the market will value much more the revenue of company B making it less attractive in terms of valuation and making it potentially overvalued, or at least compared to company A which produces the same revenue but is worth 1/10 of company B.

2.2 Correlations

This section shows whether there is a correlation between the trend in the company’s market value and the trend in key business data. The correlation is calculated for the following 3 key business data:

  • Market Value and Revenue: correlation between the trend of the market value and the 12-month trailing revenue.
  • Market Value and EBITDA / EBITDA margin: correlation between the trend of the market value and the operating profit / margin (EBITDA / EBITDA margin) trailing 12 months.
  • Market Value and Net Income / Net margin: correlation between the trend of the market value and the 12-month trailing net profit / margin.

A correlation value of 1 means that the 2 metrics are perfectly correlated, so they increase and decrease at the same time. So for example a correlation value of 1 in “Market Value and REVENUE” means that the company’s market value grows as revenues grow.

A value less than 1 means that the correlation becomes increasingly weaker. A negative value means that there is an inverse correlation, that is, as one metric increases, the other decreases, and vice versa. A correlation value greater than 0.8 means that there is a very good level of correlation.

*Within the graphs, the market value is represented in the left axis and the Revenue / EBITDA / Net income in the right axis. All data are in billions of dollars.


3. Performance

This section focuses on the performance of the company’s stock price and provides some statistics to better understand how it is performing in the short, medium and long term. There are 2 subsections; “Summary” and “Charts”.


Performance – Summary

This subsection provides the following 3 types of information:

  • Trend Direction:
    Indicates whether the short / medium / long-term price trend is positive (or negative) based on whether the last recorded price is higher (or lower) than the average price of the last 20/50/200 days.
  • Stock Price Performance:
    Indicates price performance over various time periods.
  • Statistics:
    “(+/-) Days / Weeks / Months”: indicates how many days / weeks / months have closed in positive/negative as a percentage of the total during the last 3 years.
    “Avg. Gain / Loss”: indicates the average daily / weekly / monthly gain / loss during the last 3 years.

Performance – Charts

This sub-section shows some charts relating to the trend of the company’s stock price in recent years.

The data in the charts show the growth / decline of the stock price in recent years considering the daily, weekly and monthly data (“Daily / Weekly / Monthly Performance”) and the percentage performance of the stock price every day, week and month (“Positive and Negative Days / Weeks / Months “).


4. Risk

This section aims to provide some useful statistics to understand the risk of investing in the company.

In particular, it allows to understand if the company is more volatile, and therefore risky, than the market (“Beta”), if it has a trend related to the market (“Correl.”), what is the maximum loss recorded (“Maximum Drawdown”), how much it loses on average (and at max) in the days / weeks / months that close in negative (“Avg./Max. Loss”).

explanation of the metrics
  • Beta: it represents how much the company is volatile, and therefore risky, with respect to the market, in this case represented by the S&P 500 index. If the Beta is equal to 1 it means that the company has a risk very similar to the market. If it is higher than 1 it means that it is more risky, if it is lower than 1 it is less risky. Values ​​above 2 indicate companies with high volatility.
  • Correl.: represents the correlation between the performance of the company and the market (S&P 500 index). A value of 1 means that there is a perfect correlation and therefore when the market decreases then the company also decreases, the same goes for increase. A value less than 1 means that the company will have a performance not equal to that of the market. In the event of a negative correlation, the company will have an opposite trend to that of the market.
  • Maximum Drawdown: represents the maximum loss recorded by the company in the period of time indicated in the “Analysis Period”. In short, it represents the maximum loss that would have been incurred if the company shares were bought at the highest possible price and sold at the lowest possible price.
  • Avg. Loss: Indicates the average daily / weekly / monthly loss
  • Max. Loss: Indicates the maximum daily / weekly / monthly loss

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