Key Data Analysis and Portfolio Simulation: BA, AAL, DAL, UAL

Since its inception, the purpose of has always been to be a fundamental support to anyone interested in the stock market, both in terms of trading and for longer-term investments. This is done by providing information and analysis every day covering all topics, from the best chart patterns to earnings reports, through to key business data analysis, all in one place.

I understand, but why do I need to read this analysis?

This analysis gives you all the key information you need to know about the companies covered, giving you more information on companies you already know or discover new interesting ones. Key information ranges from more general data such as dividend yield (and dividend growth in recent years) to more specific information on the company’s ability to grow business and operate with high, and improving, business margins.

The analysis is completed with information on future expectations, on the risk of investing in these companies and on a simulation of how a portfolio composed of the companies considered here would have performed in terms of return and risk, also with respect to the market index chosen as benchmark, the S&P 500 index.

The 4 companies covered in this analysis are as follows:

For reasons of space, this article presents the key data as a comparison between the companies covered by this analysis and not entire sections relating to individual companies. If you are interested in further information on individual companies, at the bottom of this article you can download the PDF report of this analysis for free.

Why companies linked to the airlines sector?

These 4 companies were chosen for a very specific reason; in recent weeks there has been a lot of talk about the possible vaccine and consequently the possibility for airlines to return to operations. This positive outlook has led to a sharp increase in the prices of these companies, which during the first lockdown had collapsed both in terms of market capitalization and in terms of billionaire losses accumulated due to the shutdown of their activities. Then, 3 airlines were selected (American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines) and a company linked to the airline industry, Boeing.

The main purpose is to inform readers about the amount of billionaire losses accumulated by these companies in recent quarters, the relative collapse of the share price (and therefore a strong lowering of the Price to Sales multiple) and the expectations of analysts on the performance of the business in the next quarter and for next year. Finally, with a view to a possible return to future lockdown situations, a portfolio simulation is presented that simulates having had these 4 companies in the portfolio starting from 2019, not so much in terms of performance which is easily conceivable, but in terms of risk.

This analysis is divided into 5 sections:

  • General Info
  • Performance and Risk
  • Key Business Data – Trailing 12 Months
  • Key Business Data – Last Quarter
  • Portfolio Simulation

The information in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

3 Most Curious Key Data

Below you find 3 curious key figures that belong to the 4 companies covered in this analysis.

Read on to find out which companies show these 3 interesting key data …

General Info

This is an introductory section that shows you general information about the companies covered in this analysis. Based on these data you can find out the size of the company, the amount of the dividend paid (and how much has been increased in recent years) and the so-called valuation multiples, or how much the market currently values the company based on 3 key business data.

Among the most interesting data is the fact that the companies have suspended dividends due to the heavy losses they have had to suffer and the fact that AAL and UAL now have a market capitalization lower than the revenues generated in the last 4 months, caused by the collapse of the prices of this year. Furthermore, in the Price to EBITDA / Net Income lines the value N/A is shown because it is not possible to calculate the multiple since the companies have a negative EBITDA and Net Income.

*Data in Millions of USD

The metrics in the image above are as follows:

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  • Market Cap ($M): Market Capitalization (expressed in millions of dollars)
  • Annual Dividend ($): Annual dividend (if the company releases it, expressed in dollars/share)
  • Annual Dividend Yield: Annual dividend (if the company releases it, expressed as a percentage of the stock price)
  • 5 Yr Dividend Growth: Growth rate of the dividend over the last 5 years
  • Valuation Multiples: Valuation of the company based on the Revenue / EBITDA / Net Income generated in the last 4 quarters (Trailing 12-Months).

Performance and Risk

In this section you will find information about the stock price of the companies covered in this analysis, useful for identifying the trend and also the risk associated with each one. The information presented here is useful to know if the stock price of the company is growing in recent months, if it is currently in a positive trend in the short, medium and long term and to know 2 important statistics on company risk; the maximum percentage loss obtained in a single trading session and the maximum loss obtained over a longer period of time.

The chart clearly shows how these companies have been catching up in recent weeks with performances of + 50% like Boeing, but looking at the beginning of the year they are still strongly negative. For all 4 companies, the short / medium / long-term trend is positive because with the increases of the last few weeks they have all exceeded the key moving averages, especially the famous 200-day moving average considered by many as the dividing line between a trend long-term positive and negative. The data of the maximum daily loss show that in the months of March and April these companies have lost about 1/4 of their value in a single trading session and considering the period starting from the beginning of 2019 the maximum loss reached was more than 70% , very painful values for any portfolio.

In the image above you can find the following metrics:

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  • 1-Month, 3-Month and Year-To-Date performance
  • Presence of a short / medium / long term positive (or negative) trend based on whether the current price is above (or below) the simple moving average at 20/50/200 days
  • The maximum loss obtained in a single trading session by the company during the period considered and the maximum loss obtained during the entire period considered. These 2 information are more useful if you look inside the section dedicated to the individual company in order to compare them with those of the market index chosen as a benchmark in order to understand how risky the company is compared to the benchmark.

Key Business Data

– Trailing 12-Months –

This section focuses on the key business data reported in recent years by the companies covered in this analysis. In particular, this section aims to understand if companies in recent years have managed to increase their business (by increasing revenues) and if they have managed to transform part of the revenues into profit, also called business margin. Furthermore, it is useful to identify whether the companies have been able to increase the profits and the margins year after year, a sign of an improvement in the business.

Finally, this section shows the analysts’ expectations on the earnings growth for the next year, so as to understand if they are expecting a growth or a decrease in the business. The key business data treated in this section are Revenue, EBITDA and Net Income, while the 2 business margins shown are EBITDA Margin and Net Margin.

On this screen there is very little to say, it clearly shows how the 4 companies in the last few quarters have accumulated billionaire losses due to the blocking of the business. Encouraging data on forecasts for next year, with analysts seeing a recovery in earnings greater than 70%, starting with the poor current data clearly.

*Data in Millions of USD

In the image above you can find the following metrics:

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  • Revenue, EBITDA and Net Income: Revenue are the sum of the products and services sold, EBITDA is a widely used metric because it is an approximation of cash flow and Net Income is what remains after all costs (including financial ones such as interest on debts). These 3 metrics are calculated TTM, i.e. as the sum of the last 4 quarters, in order to have the data updated to the most recent quarter. Est. Next Year Growth represents the growth (or decrease) rate of earnings forecast by analysts for the next year.
  • EBITDA Margin and Net Margin: Represent 2 important business margins of the company and are calculated as a percentage of revenues
  • 3 Yrs Growth: For each of the metrics just mentioned there is the growth (or decrease) rate of the last 3 years. It is very important to understand if the business is growing, especially in terms of margins.

Key Business Data

– Last Quarter –

In this section there are some key business data present in the previous one, with the difference that in this section they refer to a shorter period of time, more precisely to the last quarter. The main purpose of this section is to show the company’s results reported in the latest quarterly report released to understand if it has grown compared to the same quarter last year. Additionally, analysts’ earnings estimates for the next quarter are shown to see if they expect an improvement over last year.

Again there are few comments to make. Delta Air Lines produced a loss of nearly $ 5 billion in the last quarter. The data to report is that analysts expect an improvement in profits for the next quarter compared to last year only for Boeing, while for the 3 airlines they foresee further disasters.

*Data in Millions of USD

In the image above you find the following metrics:

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  • Revenue, Net Income and Net Margin: 3 key business data already explained in the previous section, with the difference that in this section they refer to the last quarter concluded by the company.
  • Yr-over-Yr Growth: Indicates the growth (or decrease) rate of each of the 3 previously mentioned items compared to the same quarter of last year, useful to check if the company has grown.
  • Est. Next Qtr. Growth: Represents the growth (or decrease) rate of earnings forecast by analysts for the next quarter compared to the same 12 months earlier. This figure is useful to understand if analysts expect that the company will grow in the next quarter.

Portfolio Simulation

This section simulates (based on past real prices) the performance of a hypothetical portfolio made up of the companies covered by this analysis, where they all occupy the same weight within it. The purpose of this simulation is to understand how the portfolio would have behaved in terms of return and risk, even compared to a benchmark.

As you can see from the image above, the performance as a percentage of the portfolio with respect to that of the market index chosen as benchmark for this analysis is specified, with the possibility of seeing the relative graph which simulates an initial capital of $ 10,000 invested in the portfolio compared to the same amount invested in the market index.

In addition, there are 2 subsections: In “Performance” the performance of the portfolio and that of the benchmark at 1 month, 3 months and 1 year are compared, while in the “Risk” section a comparison is made between 2 important metrics such as the Max Daily Loss and the Max DrawDown of the portfolio compared to the benchmark, in order to understand if the portfolio is more risky than the market index.

It is evident that even before the problems caused by the lockdown a portfolio composed of these companies was significantly underperforming the S&P 500 index.

Finally, the “Year-To-Date” section on the right simply shows the performance from the beginning of the year of the portfolio compared to that of the benchmark with the relative graph.

In this image, the sharp collapse during the lockdown period is evident and despite the recovery in recent weeks the portfolio is down by almost 40% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the S&P 500 index by more than 50%.

This article only shows the comparison screens between all the companies covered and not the sections relating to the individual companies, useful for having a summary, in a single page, of all the key data of the company and the comparison with respect to the benchmark.

If you are interested you can download the pdf report for FREE by clicking on the button below:

Sources & additional info

*all data is current as of the day this article was written
*data on dividends and analyst estimates for the next quarter/year by


The past performance of stock or investment strategy or those indicated in the “Portfolio Simulation” section are based on events that occurred in the past and do not represent in any way what may happen in the future and cannot guarantee its future performance., its analysts, its contributors or its authors may have a position long or short in the securities mentioned and buy or sell the securities from time to time. For the full disclaimer click here.