3 High-Growth Stocks: Key Data Analysis and Portfolio Simulation

This analysis gives you all the key data you need to know about the companies covered, giving you more information on companies you already know or discover new interesting ones. Key data ranges from more general data such as dividend yield (and dividend growth in recent years) to more specific information on the company’s ability to grow business and operate with high, and improving, business margins.

The analysis is completed with information on future expectations, on the risk of investing in these companies and on a simulation of how a portfolio composed of the companies considered here would have performed in terms of return and risk, also with respect to the market index chosen as benchmark, the S&P 500 index.

The companies covered in this analysis are as follows:

Why these 3 companies? +100% stock price growth

For this analysis, 3 companies were chosen that have appeared in the past months in the “Chart Patterns” articles here on BullDude.com and that have shown a growth in the stock price of at least 100% (doubled in value) from the day of publication of the article to today (6 December 2020).

The “Chart Patterns” category allows you to know every day the most interesting companies that show a certain chart patterns such as the breakout of a resistance, a trendline, a key moving average or the exclusive article “Potential Breakout” (companies with good probability of breaking out a resistance in the following days).

Below you will find the article in which the company appeared, the date and the relative growth of the stock price:

  • Shopify (SHOP)
    • article date: April 13, 2020
    • article link
    • stock price growth: +135% in 7 months
  • Fiverr International (FVRR)
    • article date: June 18, 2020
    • article link
    • stock price growth: +200% in 7 months
  • Pinduoduo (PDD)
    • article date: May 8, 2020
    • article link
    • stock price growth: +168% in 6 months

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This analysis is divided into 5 sections:

  • General Info
  • Performance and Risk
  • Key Business Data – Trailing 12 Months
  • Key Business Data – Last Quarter
  • Portfolio Simulation

3 Most Curious Key Data

Below you find 3 curious key data that belong to the companies covered in this analysis.

Read on to find out which companies show these 3 interesting key data …

General Info

This is an introductory section that shows you general information about the companies covered in this analysis. Based on these data you can find out the size of the company, the amount of the dividend paid (and how much has been increased in recent years) and the so-called valuation multiples, or how much the market currently values the company based on 3 key business data.

In this case none of the 3 companies pay a dividend so you will see “N/A” in the table.

*Data in Millions of USD

The metrics in the image above are as follows:

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  • Market Cap ($M): Market Capitalization (expressed in millions of dollars)
  • Annual Dividend ($): Annual dividend (if the company releases it, expressed in dollars/share)
  • Annual Dividend Yield: Annual dividend (if the company releases it, expressed as a percentage of the stock price)
  • 5 Yr Dividend Growth: Growth rate of the dividend over the last 5 years
  • Valuation Multiples: Valuation of the company based on the Revenue / EBITDA / Net Income generated in the last 4 quarters (Trailing 12-Months).

Performance and Risk

In this section you will find information about the stock price of the companies covered in this analysis, useful for identifying the trend and also the risk associated with each one. The information presented here is useful to know if the stock price of the company is growing in recent months, if it is currently in a positive trend in the short, medium and long term and to know 2 important statistics on company risk; the maximum percentage loss obtained in a single trading session and the maximum loss obtained over a longer period of time.

In the image above you can find the following metrics:

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  • 1-Month, 3-Month and Year-To-Date performance
  • Presence of a short / medium / long term positive (or negative) trend based on whether the current price is above (or below) the simple moving average at 20/50/200 days
  • The maximum loss obtained in a single trading session by the company during the period considered and the maximum loss obtained during the entire period considered. These 2 information are more useful if you look inside the section dedicated to the individual company in order to compare them with those of the market index chosen as a benchmark in order to understand how risky the company is compared to the benchmark.

Key Business Data

– Trailing 12-Months –

This section focuses on the key business data reported in recent years by the companies covered in this analysis. In particular, this section aims to understand if companies in recent years have managed to increase their business (by increasing revenues) and if they have managed to transform part of the revenues into profit, also called business margin. Furthermore, it is useful to identify whether the companies have been able to increase the profits and the margins year after year, a sign of an improvement in the business.

Finally, this section shows the analysts’ expectations on the earnings growth for the next year, so as to understand if they are expecting a growth or a decrease in the business. The key business data treated in this section are Revenue, EBITDA and Net Income, while the 2 business margins shown are EBITDA Margin and Net Margin.

*Data in Millions of USD

In the image above you can find the following metrics:

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  • Revenue, EBITDA and Net Income: Revenue are the sum of the products and services sold, EBITDA is a widely used metric because it is an approximation of cash flow and Net Income is what remains after all costs (including financial ones such as interest on debts). These 3 metrics are calculated TTM, i.e. as the sum of the last 4 quarters, in order to have the data updated to the most recent quarter. Next Year EPS Growth represents the growth (or decrease) rate of earnings-per-share (EPS) forecast by analysts for the next year.
  • EBITDA Margin and Net Margin: Represent 2 important business margins of the company and are calculated as a percentage of revenues
  • 3 Yrs Growth: For each of the metrics just mentioned there is the growth (or decrease) rate of the last 3 years. It is very important to understand if the business is growing, especially in terms of margins.

To conclude this subsection, for each of the companies covered in this article in the image above you will find a graph showing the trend in revenue (and net income) over the last 5 years. These graphs are useful to immediately understand if the revenues and the net income are in a positive or negative trend in the last years.

Key Business Data

– Last Quarter –

In this section there are some key business data present in the previous one, with the difference that in this section they refer to a shorter period of time, more precisely to the last quarter. The main purpose of this section is to show the company’s results reported in the latest quarterly report released to understand if it has grown compared to the same quarter last year. Additionally, analysts’ earnings estimates for the next quarter are shown to see if they expect an improvement over last year.

*Data in Millions of USD

In the image above you find the following metrics:

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  • Revenue, Net Income and Net Margin: 3 key business data already explained in the previous section, with the difference that in this section they refer to the last quarter concluded by the company.
  • Yr-over-Yr Growth: Indicates the growth (or decrease) rate of each of the 3 previously mentioned items compared to the same quarter of last year, useful to check if the company has grown.
  • Next Qtr. EPS Growth: Represents the growth (or decrease) rate of earnings-per-share (EPS) forecast by analysts for the next quarter compared to the same 12 months earlier. This figure is useful to understand if analysts expect that the company will grow in the next quarter.

Portfolio Simulation

This section simulates (based on past real prices) the performance of a hypothetical portfolio made up of the companies covered by this analysis, where they all occupy the same weight within it. The purpose of this simulation is to understand how the portfolio would have behaved in terms of return and risk, even compared to a benchmark.

*The portfolio initially consists of 50% Pinduoduo and 50% Shopify because at the start date of the simulation (January 2, 2019) Fiverr was not yet listed on the stock exchange. On 13 June 2019 (date of listing of Fiverr on the stock exchange) the portfolio is rebalanced giving all 3 companies an equal weight (33%).

As you can see from the image above, the performance as a percentage of the portfolio with respect to that of the market index chosen as benchmark for this analysis is specified, with the possibility of seeing the relative graph which simulates an initial capital of $ 10,000 invested in the portfolio compared to the same amount invested in the market index.

In addition, there are 2 subsections: In “Performance” the performance of the portfolio and that of the benchmark at 1 month, 3 months and 1 year are compared, while in the “Risk” section a comparison is made between 2 important metrics such as the Max Daily Loss and the Max DrawDown of the portfolio compared to the benchmark, in order to understand if the portfolio is more risky than the market index.

Finally, the “Year-To-Date” section on the right simply shows the performance from the beginning of the year of the portfolio compared to that of the benchmark with the relative graph.

This article only shows the comparison screens between all the companies covered and not the sections relating to the individual companies, useful for having a summary, in a single page, of all the key data of the company and the comparison with respect to the benchmark.

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Sources & additional info

*all data is current as of the day this article was written
*data on dividends and analyst estimates for the next quarter/year by barchart.com


The information in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The past performance of stock or investment strategy or those indicated in the “Portfolio Simulation” section are based on events that occurred in the past and do not represent in any way what may happen in the future and cannot guarantee its future performance. BullDude.com, its analysts, its contributors or its authors may have a position long or short in the securities mentioned and buy or sell the securities from time to time. For the full disclaimer click here.