The purpose of the trend analysis is to provide key information on the direction, strength and timing of change in the stock price trend in the short, medium and long term. This analysis covers the Top 150 Stocks on the United States stock exchange that are grouped in the BullDude’s Bundles.
Below you can find a brief explanation of the 2 key terms to help you understand how the direction and strength of the stock price trend is calculated using one of the most reliable tools: Moving Average.
How is the DIRECTION of the Stock Price Trend determined?
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The direction of the stock price trend is determined by comparing the average price of the last 5 days (5-Day Moving Average) with the average price of the following periods:
Short-Term Trend: 20-Day Moving Average
Mid-Term Trend: 50-Day Moving Average
Long-Term Trend: 200-Day Moving Average
The stock price is in a positive trend if the 5-Day MA (Moving Average) is higher than the average price of the 3 periods seen previously, while if it is lower it means that the price is in a negative trend. So, in summary:
Positive Trend: 5-Day MA HIGHER than 20/50/200-Day MA
Negative Trend: 5-Day MA LOWER than 20/50/200-Day MA
Real Example: Apple Inc (AAPL)
Here is a real example of how Apple’s Short-Term Trend is determined and shows when it goes from negative to positive.
The example shows only the case of the short-term trend (therefore using the 20-Day MA) because the concept is the same in the case of medium and long-term trends, the only thing that changes is the use of the 50-Day MA and 200-Day MA respectively:
Example – Trend Direction: Apple Inc (AAPL)
Case 1 – Negative Trend: In this time period Apple’s short-term trend is negative because the 5-Day MA (red line) is LOWER than the 20-Day MA (black line). So, in these cases, in the article, a red-colored percentage will appear in the table, indicating the presence of a negative trend. Whether the number is high or low will depend on the strength of the trend, but we will learn more about it in the dedicated section.
Case 2 –Positive Trend: In the middle of the image there is a vertical dashed red line indicating the moment when the short-term trend changes from negative to positive. This is because the 5-Day MA (red line) for the first time becomes HIGHER than the 20-Day MA (black line). In this case, a green-colored percentage will appear in the table.
How is the STRENGTH of the Stock Price Trend determined?
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In the previous section we discovered how to determine the direction of the trend based on the position of the 5-Day MA relative to the moving averages that represent the trend in the short term (20-Day MA), medium term (50-Day MA) and long term (200-Day MA). If the 5-Day MA is higher then the trend is positive, while if it is lower the trend is negative.
Consequently, the strength of the trend is determined on how far the 5-Day MA diverges from the other 3 Moving Averages. The more the price of the last 5 days accelerates compared to that of the last 20/50 or 200 days, the greater the strength of the trend.
Real Example: Apple Inc (AAPL)
Taking the example of the previous section on Apple’s short-term trend, and focusing only on the positive trend for simplicity, we distinguish 2 different cases: Weak Trend and Strong Trend.
Example – Trend Strength: Apple Inc (AAPL)
Case 1 – Weak Trend: In this case we are talking about a weak positive trend because the 5-Day MA is only 1.5% higher than the 20-Day SMA, especially because the short-term positive trend has just begun.
Case 2 – Strong Trend: After several trading sessions, Apple’s 5-Day MA accelerates and in fact we are talking about a strong positive trend because this time the 5-Day MA is 4.5% higher than the 20-Day MA, so the trend is 3 times stronger compared to the previous case (4.5% vs 1.5%).
In conclusion, within the article we find the strength of the trend (that 1.5% and 4.5% previously seen) for each of the top 150 stocks and for each of the 3 time periods (Short, Mid and Long Term).
Below is an example of how this data is shown in the article for each of the 150 Top Stocks and for each period of time considered: Short, Mid and Long term. Furthermore, as an additional data, the price growth margin is shown to be able to return to the maximum price recorded in the last 52 weeks (“to 52-Wk High”) starting from the average price of the last 5 days. The data in the table are examples and not real.
Example – Direction and Strength of the trend
In addition to showing the strength and direction of the trend data for each of the 150 stocks covered by the article, rankings are also shown in order to intuitively identify the stocks with the strongest positive and negative trend.
In the image below an example of the stocks with the strongest positive and negative long-term trend, with an indication of how strong the trend is (therefore the percentage distance between the 5-Day Moving Average and the 200-Day Moving Average). The data in the table are examples and not real.
Example – Long-Term Trend Ranking
How to determine when the Stock Price Trend CHANGES DIRECTION?
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In the section on determining the direction of the trend we found that it is based on the position of the 5-Day MA with respect to the moving averages that represent the trend in the short term (20-Day MA), medium term (50-Day MA) and long term term (200-Day MA). If the 5-Day MA is higher then the trend is positive, while if it is lower the trend is negative.
Therefore, to understand when the trend changes from being negative to positive, it is necessary to wait for the 5-Day MA to change from being lower to higher than the 20/50/200-Day MA and vice versa in the event of a trend passing from positive to negative.
In this article, in the case of a transition from a negative to a positive trend, this change is identified with the percentage of strength of the trend that is next to the name of the company that changes from being red in the previous day (because it was a negative trend) to be green in the next day (because the trend becomes positive). In any case, there is a section where the companies that show a change in trend from negative to positive and vice versa are shown, for each period of time.
Example: from Heaven to Hell
In the following example we show what happens when a completely positive trend, i.e. positive in the short, medium and long term, becomes completely negative and how this situation is represented in this type of article.
*”Hell” is not the real continuation of “Heaven”, but they have been taken in different periods because they are useful to represent the concept
Heaven =Completely Positive Trend In this case, Apple’s stock price is in a completely positive trend, i.e. the 5-Day MA is above the 20-Day, 50-Day and 200-Day MA. Below is the example chart:
Example – Completely Positive Trend: Apple Inc (AAPL)
In this type of article a situation like this is represented with green numbers in the short, medium and long term trend boxes:
Example – Table – Completely Positive Trend: Apple Inc (AAPL)
Hell =Completely Negative Trend
The passage from heaven to hell consists in the passage from a completely positive trend (case 1) to a completely negative one, passing through the various steps, i.e. that first the short-term trend becomes negative (case 2), then the medium-term one (case 3) and finally the long-term one (case 4). Below is Apple’s sample chart that fully represents this situation.
Example – From Heaven to Hell: Apple Inc (AAPL)
Case 1:FULL Positive Trend The first case takes up the previous section called “Heaven” where the trend is positive in all time periods because the 5-Day MA is higher than the 20-Day MA, 50-Day MA and 200-Day MA.
Case 2:New Short-Term Negative Trend The second case represents the moment in which, starting from a completely positive trend situation, the Apple stock price starts to drop and the 5-Day MA ends below the 20-Day MA and therefore the short-term trend becomes negative, while the mid-term and long-term ones remain positive, even if their strength is lower.
Case 3:New Mid-TermNegative Trend The third case represents the moment in which Apple’s stock price continues to drop and the 5-Day MA also falls below the 50-Day MA and therefore also the medium-term trend becomes negative along with the short-term one, while the trend in the long term it can still be defined as positive, even if it has lost a lot of strength, a situation that can be easily identified in the tables shown.
Case 4:New Long-TermNegative Trend The fourth case represents the moment in which we reach hell, therefore from a completely positive trend we pass to a completely negative one. In fact, Apple’s stock price continues to drop further and the 5-Day MA also falls below the 200-Day MA and thus the long-term trend turns negative, along with the short and medium one.
In the following image a representation of what would happen to the tables found in this article during the period in which the various cases occur. The numbers inside the table are invented and are for educational purposes only:
Example – Table – from Heaven to Hell: Apple Inc (AAPL)
Therefore, this article is very useful for identifying both very positive situations, but also very negative ones and above all the daily update frequency allows you to check every day if the trend loses strength and if it goes in the opposite direction.
This article includes a lot of key data and information on each of the top 150 Stocks covered. Given the enormous amount of data and information, the following 2 sections have been introduced that allow you to access the data through summaries and rankings.
1. Trend Rankings
This first section shows which stocks have just changed the direction of the trend and intuitive rankings that allow you to find out which stocks have the strongest positive / negative trend for each of the 3 time periods considered (short, medium and long term).
Furthermore, a ranking is also shown for the so-called “All-Term” period, where only the stocks that have a positive (or negative) trend in both the short, medium and long term are included.
In summary, this section answers the following questions:
Which are the stocks with the Strongest Positive Trend?
Which are the stocks with the Strongest Negative Trend?
Which stocks have seen a Change in the Direction of the Trend?
2. Trend of the Top 150 Stocks
This second section shows, for each of the top 150 stocks, the direction and strength of the trend for each time period; short, medium and long term. The purpose of this section is to answer the following questions:
What is the direction and strength of the short, medium and long term trend of a company like Apple or Tesla or the other 148 top stocks?
How much does the company’s stock price have to rise to reach its 52-week high?
1. Trend Rankings
This section shows summaries and rankings that allow you to understand which stocks have reversed the trend and which show the strongest positive and negative trends.
Below you will find the 4 individual sections that contain the summaries and rankings for each of the 4 time periods previously mentioned; Short-Term, Mid-Term, Long-Term and All-Term Trend.
1.1 Short-Term Trend
In this section we focus on stocks by looking at short-term trend data only which is identified using the 20-day moving average:
Positive (Negative) short-term trend: 5-day moving averageHigher (Lower) than 20-day moving average
New Positive (Negative) short-term trend: 5-day moving averageCrossed above (below) the 20-day moving average
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Summary
This subsection shows the total number of stocks covered by the analysis (Total), the number of stocks that currently have a positive / negative trend (Positive / Negative) and the stocks that have seen, at the end of today’s trading session, a reversal of the short-term trend from negative to positive (New Positive Trend) and from positive to negative (New Negative Trend). In addition, there are 2 graphs that show the trend of the last few weeks of the percentage of stocks in positive and negative trend.
It is important to remember that as soon as a company reverses the trend it will initially be weak and it will take a few days of confirmation to be trusted. Furthermore, it is preferable to also look at the direction and strength of the trend in the other time periods. For example, if company X enters a short term positive trend but is in a strong medium and long term negative trend it could be a risky situation.
This subsection shows the 10 stocks with the strongest positive short-term trend (TOP) and the 10 stocks with the strongest negative short-term trend (FLOP). For each company included in the ranking there is a percentage value that indicates the direction of the trend (positive trend if colored green or negative if colored red) and an indication of the strength of the trend (the higher the percentage, the stronger the trend).
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In this section we focus on stocks by looking at mid-term trend data only which is identified using the 50-day moving average:
Positive (Negative) mid-term trend: 5-day moving averageHigher (Lower) than 50-day moving average
New Positive (Negative) mid-term trend: 5-day moving averageCrossed above (below) the 50-day moving average
Do you need a more detailed explanation? click here
Summary
This subsection shows the total number of stocks covered by the analysis (Total), the number of stocks that currently have a positive / negative trend (Positive / Negative) and the stocks that have seen, at the end of today’s trading session, a reversal of the mid-term trend from negative to positive (New Positive Trend) and from positive to negative (New Negative Trend). In addition, there are 2 graphs that show the trend of the last few weeks of the percentage of stocks in positive and negative trend.
This subsection shows the 10 stocks with the strongest positive mid-term trend (TOP) and the 10 stocks with the strongest negative mid-term trend (FLOP). For each company included in the ranking there is a percentage value that indicates the direction of the trend (positive trend if colored green or negative if colored red) and an indication of the strength of the trend (the higher the percentage, the stronger the trend).
Do you need a more detailed explanation? click here
In this second section we find the data on the direction and strength of the short, medium and long term trend for each of the 150 top stocks that are covered by this analysis.
As additional information there is also the item “Distance to 52-Wk High”, useful for understanding how much the company’s price must increase to return to the maximum price reached in the last 52 weeks starting from the average price of the last 5 days.
For each company included there is a percentage value that indicates the direction of the trend (positive trend if colored green or negative if colored red) and an indication of the strength of the trend (the higher the percentage, the stronger the trend).
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